Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from November, 2009

India to gain from developed world's folly

The crisis is not over yet. Not by any stretch of imagination. The shockwaves from Dubai proved this in ample measure. The once sprawling emirate kingdom is now finding it difficult to repay its debt obligations. And investors are busy analyzing which one would be the next country to follow suit. Not that there aren't enough contenders. Infact, the list is bigger than any other time in history. As per LiveMint, OECD has already warned that the world's 30 leading industrialized economies will see their outstanding public debt to grow to 100% of their GDP in 2010,a near doubling from the percentage 20 years ago. Now imagine what would happen if creditors refuse to lend to the governments anymore? While the governments could still resort to a lot of methods, sadly, none of them promise a swift and a strong recovery in the near to medium term. In other words, get used to anemic and subpar growth in economies with a significant amount of outstanding debt vis-à-vis the GDP. So how wi...

GDP - Bouncing back !

Q2FY10 GDP surpasses expectations by leaps and bounds India’s real GDP during Q2FY10 recorded 7.9% Y-o-Y growth rate, leaving India Inc. gaping and pointing at Y-o-Y H1FY10 growth of 7% (comparable with 7.8% Y-o-Y in H1FY09). Agriculture escapes fall; manufacturing, trading lead recovery The strong growth is on the back of a sharp rebound in industrial activity and sustained momentum in service sector growth. Nevertheless, it was the agriculture sector that surprised market estimates by growing ~1% Y-o-Y vis-à-vis estimated decline. Historical trends, however, suggest that the severe rainfall deficiency (deficit of ~23%) during the monsoon season of FY10 is bound to have a sharp adverse impact on the growth of agriculture GDP in either Q2 or Q3FY10. On the other hand, manufacturing sector clearly stood out as the growth propeller, owing to improved performance of domestic-focused sectors, possible reflection of a lagged impact of stimulus measures, significant inventory re-stocking, be...

The dollar is under no threat?

The US dollar has received a lot of bashing in recent times. And why not? The US economy is in the doldrums, unemployment is soaring and the deficit has widened all of which has put immense pressure on its currency. So much so that there have been voices in many quarters questioning the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. China has been at the forefront suggesting that the US dollar should be replaced with another reserve currency. However, the MD of International Monetary Fund (IMF), Dominique Strauss-Kahn has said that confidence in the dollar isn't under threat despite the fact that the debt on US' books has bloated. And his view is endorsed by the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who also believes in the strength of the dollar. Infact, the PM opines that the current setback in the US is 'temporary' and that there is no substitute to the US dollar for replacement as the global reserve currency. What is more, he expressed confidence that the c...

The most rewarding career path in India - Politics

It is one of India's most mineral rich areas. It is also one of India's poorest regions. But that has not stopped some of its citizens from charting amazing career paths. No i am not talking about Forbes richest, i am talking about the state of Jharkhand and its governing class. As reported in a leading national daily, a rickshaw puller who entered politics now has two bungalows and a small time contractor who did the same now commands a fleet of cars. Of course, the cake is taken by a daily wage earner who eventually became the Chief Minister - Madhu Koda. While one should not jump to conclusions while the investigation into the alleged Rs 40 bn scam is on, there are some startling numbers already in public domain. Mr. Koda declared a personal networth of Rs 2.4 m in 2005 which swelled to Rs 11.7 m in 2009. That's nearly 5 times the money in 4 years. Two of his erstwhile colleagues Enos Ekka and Harinarayan Rai have personal networths of Rs 14 m and Rs 32 m respectively as...