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Showing posts from May, 2022

Strategy: Time to Pivot the Portfolio

Global liquidity tightening has started impacting growth (slowing of PMIs, money supply, etc) after valuations.  The shift will be seen from de-rating to downgrades. To add salt to the wounds, there is  tightening by the RBI adds to woes, risking DII flows and SMID/India’s outperformance to large caps/EM. These lead indicators suggest a time for portfolio reshuffle. 1.        Defensives: Pharma (upgrade), staples fmcg over IT (downgrade) 2.        Consumption: Domestic auto and staples over durables 3.        Investment: Cement  (upgrade) over Industrials , Real estate 4.        BFSI: Private banks/Insurance over PSU banks/NBFCs 5.        Global cyclical: Energy (upgrade) over metals/export auto