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Analysing Auto Sales: The festivity is on - continuing

Hero Honda: Strong performance continues
Hero Honda (HH) continued its robust performance with sales of 0.38 mn units (up 32% Y-o-Y, 7.7% M-o-M) for November 2009. It seems to have recouped from the impact of a strike last month. Despite increased competition, HH continues to dominate the core executive segment and benefits from its strong rural presence. With underlying demand remaining strong, the company is clearly on the path of beating its guidance of 4 mn units for the full year (particularly, with inventory at the lowest levels).



Maruti Suzuki: Domestic segment drives growth
Maruti Suzuki’s (MSIL) domestic volumes, at ~76,000, were up 60.1% Y-o-Y and 6.7% M-o-M. Key growth driver has been the A2 segment that performed well Y-o-Y as well as M-o-M, mainly on account of improved production at Manesar plant (manufacturing Swift); the waiting period for Swift has declined in the past month as allocations have increased. Export volumes declined 17.4% M-o-M which may be indicative of demand softening in the European market, post removal of tax incentives.



Tata Motors: M&HCV volumes remain strong
Tata Motors’ (TTMT) M&HCV volumes continued to post growth, albeit on a low base (volumes up 116% Y-o-Y); sequentially, volumes were up 5%, indicating improving demand. The Y-o-Y growth trend is likely to grow stronger from the next month as the base becomes more benign (December FY08 was the trough). The LCV space continued its robust performance (61% plus Y-o-Y; down 9% M-o-M), driven by Ace and Magic. The car segment showed M-o-M growth, largely due to the launch of Manza. Nano production increased marginally to over 3,400 units.



Mahindra & Mahindra: Sequential decline in tractors not surprising
Mahindra & Mahindra’s (M&M) tractor volumes, though up 46% Y-o-Y, were down 35% Q-o-Q. The tractor segment typically exhibits a high sequential decline post the festival season and does not reflect sluggishness on account weak rains. Despite strong Y-o-Y growth, the UV segment declined ~18% M-o-M.



Outlook: Strong trend maintained
Even after the festival season, the underlying demand for automobiles across segments - two wheelers, cars and commercial vehicles - remains robust. Economic recovery should lead to continued strong demand, going forward. Impact of monsoon has been minimal and late rains, which augur well for the rabi crop, could cushion companies from adversities in future.

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