Skip to main content

How fast will the Sensex touch its previous high? Will this rally last?

When i was away to disneyland, the markets across asia shot up. In an interesting interview to Mint, Ruchir Sharma, the head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has said that what’s happening right now in the markets is nothing but a cyclical bull market within what is still a structurally a bear market. As far as India is concerned, he opines that Indian markets can exit this bear market regime a lot quicker than the developed world. "I think valuations have already moved now from being cheap in March or late October, to being sort of relatively fair to slightly expensive... If you are looking for a true new bull market... I think the base for that will be set by the middle of the next year," he said. And that’s when he feels that the bull market rules will come back into play, and the Sensex will once again be free to touch its highs of 21,000. HOWEVER noted investment gurus Jim Rogers and Marc Faber are of an opposite view when it comes to world markets. And their opinion is that the current rally is a result of liquidity that has been created by the printing of money at the drop of a hat rather than any concrete measures to beat the crisis. In fact, the fundamental problems remain largely unsolved.
Therefore, besides believing that equity markets are set to witness a major correction, they expect the next crisis to emerge in currencies given that many countries have shifted more of sour debt from banks onto their own balance sheets. Coming from both these renowned gurus, it is indeed pertinent to take note of their opinions since they are strikingly similar.
Even i am of the opinion that the large scale printing of money to bailout banks will come back to haunt governments in the form of higher inflation.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Learning from #FriendsReunion - Plan Your Bottle Episode

Learning from #FriendsReunion - Plan Your Bottle Episode While watching Friends: The Reunion a while back ( Yes, i am super late, been a very busy week) something  struck with me which the show’s creators said about "budgeting" a term called Bottle Episode.    On Friends - Its one of the most successful television sitcoms of all time. From 1994 to 2004, the show never left the list of top 10 most-watched  television programs.  It was also one of the most expensive television series of all time. By the last two seasons, each of the six main actors earned more than $1 million per episode. From the resources perspective, the show has more than justified that expense since then. As per some estimate Friends earns around $1 billion a year from syndication, merchandising, streaming, and other deals. During the reunion show, creator Marta Kaufman talked about how they planned “bottle episodes” each season to manage the show’s budget....
6 comments
Read more

Insight from the new book "The story of work" by Jan Lucassen. Work that never ends

The more things change, its turn out to be the  same as it ever was.  A new book about the history of work reveals that today’s workers have much in common with all those who have come before them over the past 12,000 years.  People’s appetites drive them to produce more than they need, and they build political and economic institutions to help them do it. Then those institutions drive them to do more. NYT ( see the story in the link)  also talks about  Gluttons for punishment.  We work so much because we want so much. That was anthropologist James Suzman’s conclusion after studying hunter-gatherers in the Kalahari Desert who satisfied their survival needs with roughly 15 hours of weekly labor. But modern, urban societies cause us to develop unlimited desires, which lead us to endless labour https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-james-suzman.html?cid=other-eml-onp-mip-mck&hlkid=38845d000b404e829c41b7395739f39a&...
Post a Comment
Read more

Biyani looks at the bigger picture

It is important to look at the holistic picture and have an individual opinion rather than get swayed away by the public consensus. This is the view of the man who pioneered the retailing boom in India - Mr. Kishore Biyani, the founder of India’s largest retailing company - Pantaloon. In an article in the Wall street Journal, Mr. Biyani wrote, "Almost daily doses of bad news on television screens and newspapers have possibly done as much damage to the economy as the events on either side of the Atlantic." I completely agree with him. Mr. Biyani’s predicament is based on the fact that an overwhelming majority of Indian consumers are self-employed, who can neither get laid off nor can have pay cuts. Consider some statistics he has provided. The share of the national income represented by proprietor-run concerns and partnerships is 35%. The share of companies is around 15%, government around 25%, and agriculture around 25%. Combine agriculture and the self-employed in industry a...
1 comment
Read more