Skip to main content

The worse may not yet be over for the already battered US housing market

The worse may not yet be over for the already battered US housing market, where the seeds of the current financial crisis were sown. While house prices since then have crashed, the question that is now on everyone’s mind is - whether they have fallen enough? And the answer may well be ‘no’. The logical conclusion being the bigger the bubble, the bigger will have to be the crash. Not only that, while prices have melted, they are not cheap as comparable to wages and even more so in a scenario where job uncertainty looms large. Furthermore, as reported in the Wall Street Journal, the prices currently are at a level last seen in 2003 when they were perceived to be inflated even then. Therefore, to find pre-bubble prices one would have to go back to about 2000 when values overall were about a third lower than they are today.
Interestingly, the paper has compared the current bubble with the 1989 property bubble and has observed that the home prices currently are more expensive in relation to average earnings, than at the peak of the 1989 bubble. What’s more, when that bubble burst, it took around 8 years before any signs of revival began to manifest. By that comparison alone, the housing market will probably take a longer time to recover, even when the current market is being labeled as a buyer’s one.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Biyani looks at the bigger picture

It is important to look at the holistic picture and have an individual opinion rather than get swayed away by the public consensus. This is the view of the man who pioneered the retailing boom in India - Mr. Kishore Biyani, the founder of India’s largest retailing company - Pantaloon. In an article in the Wall street Journal, Mr. Biyani wrote, "Almost daily doses of bad news on television screens and newspapers have possibly done as much damage to the economy as the events on either side of the Atlantic." I completely agree with him. Mr. Biyani’s predicament is based on the fact that an overwhelming majority of Indian consumers are self-employed, who can neither get laid off nor can have pay cuts. Consider some statistics he has provided. The share of the national income represented by proprietor-run concerns and partnerships is 35%. The share of companies is around 15%, government around 25%, and agriculture around 25%. Combine agriculture and the self-employed in industry a...
1 comment
Read more

Infosys kick started the March quarter and full year FY09 result season today on a mixed note

Infosys kick started the March quarter and full year FY09 result season today on a mixed note. Although its fourth quarter operating performance did not have much to be enthused about, the company managed to add 37 new clients and 1,772 employees (net) during this quarter. This goes to show the consistency in the company’s long term business prospects. While the full year profits grew by a healthy 29% YoY, the company announced an earnings guidance for FY10 that would be lower by 3% to 7% YoY as compared to FY09 EPS.
Post a Comment
Read more

Influencer Marketing - Creating Conversation, Don't just be part of it.

Influencer Marketing is growing rapidly   Influencer outreach has matured, grown in size, influence is still defining itself within the world, jockeying for position among more established routes to consumers.  Instead, we must acknowledge the role influence plays in reputation management, and how its unique success can best benefit the company.  The question is no longer if you should partner with influencers.  At the outset, many were skeptical of this approach to communication. Indeed, as social media matured, this new kind of stardom, or at least fame, was not wholly embraced.  Create Conversation Don't just be part of it   The conversation is no longer something that you can plan for on a calendar. Today, it happens serendipitously. So as audience-first trends bubble up across social media, brands need to embrace these cultural catalysts, rather than trying to forcefully wedge PR moments into the digital space.  Just let the hits happen.  ...
Post a Comment
Read more